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Can the US Dodge a Recession? This Economist Thinks So - Bloomberg
“In science we use models all the time, and they’re simplifications of reality,” he said. “And part of the skill of the scientist is to know when to deploy the model and when not to or, in other words, to know the limitations of the model. And maybe I’m in a good position of knowing the limitations, given that it’s my model.”
Russell Napier: The world will experience a capex boom
As a third prerequisite you need a domestic investor base that is captured by the regulatory framework and has to buy your government bonds, regardless of their yield. This way, you prevent bond yields from rising above the rate of inflation. All this is in place today, as many insurance companies and pension funds have no choice but to buy government bonds.
New Fed Paper Finds Surging Home Prices Driven by Demand — Not Supply - Bloomberg
“We estimate that a one percentage point increase in the mortgage rate lowers housing demand by 10.4 percent,” the authors write. “This is a larger demand sensitivity to rates than evidence using purely observable housing market variables suggests.”