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The hazards of second-guessing | Chicago Booth Review

Overall, the participants asked to analyze whether their first guess had been too high or low performed worse on their second prediction—that is, their second guesses were more likely to be more extreme and thus less likely to be in the correct direction relative to the first. The results held across several experiments, both online and in person. The researchers also wanted to test the phenomenon in a situation without the boundaries of percentages, so they asked another group of participants to look at stock prices for 10 well-known companies and predict what the prices would be two weeks in the future. As before, one group analyzed their first guess before making a second one—and once again, this group produced second guesses that were more extreme than the first, making the average less accurate. Asking people explicitly to evaluate their first guess may cause them to use that first guess as a reference point, which can lead to a second guess that’s further from the actual target, the researchers explain.

#managing #projection - review.chicagobooth.edu

The world as a mirror

Like an emotional movie projector, "projecting" refers to a behavior in which we project our own internal beliefs, feelings or experiences onto someone else when we feel they are inappropriate. Shadow material is especially susceptible to being projected onto someone else. Look around you? Does you view everyone as a cheat? A gossip? A liar? Does everyone around you seem angry? Unhappy? Fearful? You may be seeing your own shadow projected onto others. The Mexican culture has a wonderful saying which translates roughly into English as, "The lion believes that all are like him". That about sums it up.

#psychology #projection - kellevision.com

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