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Afternoon Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Nerds, High Priests, and the State of Economics - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
These past six years… a big win for basic Hicksian macroeconomics…. Consider the people Simon Wren-Lewis calls the ‘high priests’, people who are supposedly ‘close to the markets’ and whose vast experience and intuition grant them insights denied to nerdy economists…. They’ve spent these past six years declaring that we’re going to turn into Greece any day now (and it’s ‘regrettable’ that it hasn’t happened yet), that we can boost the economy by cutting deficits, because confidence. Great calls, guys. Remarkably, as Simon points out, politicians still hang on the words of these high priests…”
Nighttime Must-Read: Mark Warshawsky and Ross Marchand: Why Use Years-Old Data to Attack Social Security Disability? - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
This looks very bad for Mark Warshawsky and Ross Marchand: using outdated data that misrepresents the current situation is really not something you want to gain a reputation for doing. I’m interested if there is an alternative explanation they would not tell Hiltzik:
Michael Hiltzik: Why did the WSJ use years-old data to attack Social Security disability?: “Mark J. Warshawsky… and Ross A. Marchand…. Warshawsky declined to answer my questions about the piece on the record…
…but referred me to a lengthier treatment he published in Bloomberg’s Pension & Benefits Daily in 2012. First question: Why did Warshawsky and Marchand use case figures from 2008?… Social Security’s own inspector general’s office… found… that the average approval rate has been coming down for years–reaching 56% in fiscal 2013…
Morning Must-Read: Mary S. Morgan: Modelling as a Method of Enquiry - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
“Despite the ubiquity of modelling in modern economics, it is not easy to say how this way of doing science works…
…Scientific models are not self-evident things, and it is not obvious how such research objects are made, nor how a scientist reasons with them, nor to what purpose. These difficulties of definition and understanding are exhibited in a most concrete fashion in an example that lays claim to being the first such research object in economics…
Morning Must-Read: Paul Krugman: The Regrettable Man - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
The continued willingness of right-wing economists to declare their allegiance to the inflation cult continues to amaze:
Paul Krugman: The Regrettable Man: “CNN: ‘Lonegan also said Friday…
…that in conjunction with the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming this year, a group of conservative economists are planning to hold a meeting of their own ‘directly across the street’ featuring former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan as the keynote speaker.
Morning Must-Read: Paul Krugman: The Closed-Minds Problem - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
the point is not to convince Rick Santelli or Allan Meltzer that they are wrong…. It is, instead, to deter other parties from false equivalence. Inflation cultists can’t be moved; but reporters and editors who tend to put out views-differ-on-shape-of-planet stories because they think it’s safe can be, sometimes, deterred if you show that they are lending credence to charlatans…. The inflation-cult story is, I think, a prime example…. It really would be nice not having to do things this way. But that’s the world we live in…
Evening Must-Read: Simon Wren-Lewis: Greece: A Simple Macroeconomic Guide - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
What is one supposed to do when confronted by arguments that seem to me–and to everybody else who has been right about the evolution of the North Atlantic economy since 2008–so unprofessional as this piece in Vox? Simon Wren-Lewis begins the needed labor of Hercules here:
Simon Wren-Lewis: Greece: A Simple Macroeconomic gGuide: “In 2010 periphery Eurozone countries…
Lunchtime Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Triumph of the Chart - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Paul Krugman: Triumph of the Chart: “The Vox interview with President Obama…
…reactions… not just from the right, but from centrists are remarkable. Jack Shafer compares it to a Scientology recruitment film; Rich Lowry compares it to Leni Riefenstahl…. What seems to offend the critics is the very idea of covering a politician’s policies…. Back in 2004… you could watch all the network and major cable coverage for two months, and learn literally nothing about, say, the candidates’ health care plans…. That’s the kind of thing the people at Vox are trying to fix–and the response is to accuse them of acting like cultists if not Nazis.
Dynamic Scoring Considered Harmful: Focus - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
I had always thought that dynamic scoring was a bad idea because it leads to a ratchet–Democrats when they are in power claim deficit reduction from a stronger economy if their policies are enacted , and then Republicans when they are in power claim deficit reduction from a stronger economy if they undo what the Democrats did. You have no chance of getting policy-effect forecasts that are unbiased on average if you allow the party in power to shape CBO’s estimates of macroeconomic impacts.
The vir clarissimus Robert Lynch has a good look at all the other issues in this can of worms:
Evening Must-Read: Claudia Sahm: Is Resistance Futile? - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Claudia Sahm: Is Resistance Futile?: “Krugman…. ‘So if Larry [Summers] were at the Fed…
would he be saying what he is, or would he have been assimilated by the FedBorg?…
This got me wondering: In the past 7+ years have I, as a staff economist, been ‘assimilated by the FedBorg?’… What are some Fed-specific signs that I have changed as an economist?: Fedspeak: My economic writing tends to be more factual and less forceful now…. The staff view: As an economist, I uttered the words: ‘we think xyz’ much, much less before joining the Fed…. The Fed: More than once I have thought how wonderful it would be if monetary policy in the real world were like in Woodford’s textbook…. I am constantly amazed at the array of inputs to and outputs from the policy work at the Fed. And I am pretty sure that most academic economists could learn something from reflecting more on this…. So it seems to me the good part of assimilating is learning new things, the bad part of assimilating is forgetting what you knew…
Trying to Understand the Current State of Health-Care Debate. And Failing...: Focus - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Can someone point me to something Stuart Butler has written in the past three years that has turned out to be correct?
I mean, it seems to be blinkered, partisan, wrong–and obviously wrong at the time, both in its analysis of the political forces and of the policy substance. Am I wrong? Take a look:
Stuart Butler (2012): End of the Threat to Obamacare? Not at All: “The core elements of the ACA remain very much in play…
…[because of] the continuing problems with the federal budget deficit and the national debt and the worrying long-term weakness of the economy…. 2013… a year for buyer’s remorse in Congress and around the country…. Employers[‘]… concerns about mandatory benefits are slowing their hiring… lower-wage employers are moving towards hiring part-time employees to avoid the ACA’s penalties. These patterns will only grow…. The possibility of larger-than-expected enrollment in health insurance exchanges will sharply increase the budget costs… force Congress to reopen key ACA coverage provisions….
It’s also hard to imagine the expansion of Medicaid proceeding as planned… even the short-term prospect of Washington picking up expanded Medicaid costs is not likely to prevent a strong pushback by states….
The prospects for serious Medicare reform are actually on the rise. The Ryan version of premium support…. Obama’s initial large lead as the best defender of Medicare slid to just 5 points by the election…. Romney… won the senior vote…. Relying on the Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB) of experts in health care economics and the health care system to crack down on physicians and hospitals is hardly going to make the ACA more popular among seniors…
