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Trying to Understand the Current State of Health-Care Debate. And Failing...: Focus - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Can someone point me to something Stuart Butler has written in the past three years that has turned out to be correct?
I mean, it seems to be blinkered, partisan, wrong–and obviously wrong at the time, both in its analysis of the political forces and of the policy substance. Am I wrong? Take a look:
Stuart Butler (2012): End of the Threat to Obamacare? Not at All: “The core elements of the ACA remain very much in play…
…[because of] the continuing problems with the federal budget deficit and the national debt and the worrying long-term weakness of the economy…. 2013… a year for buyer’s remorse in Congress and around the country…. Employers[‘]… concerns about mandatory benefits are slowing their hiring… lower-wage employers are moving towards hiring part-time employees to avoid the ACA’s penalties. These patterns will only grow…. The possibility of larger-than-expected enrollment in health insurance exchanges will sharply increase the budget costs… force Congress to reopen key ACA coverage provisions….
It’s also hard to imagine the expansion of Medicaid proceeding as planned… even the short-term prospect of Washington picking up expanded Medicaid costs is not likely to prevent a strong pushback by states….
The prospects for serious Medicare reform are actually on the rise. The Ryan version of premium support…. Obama’s initial large lead as the best defender of Medicare slid to just 5 points by the election…. Romney… won the senior vote…. Relying on the Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB) of experts in health care economics and the health care system to crack down on physicians and hospitals is hardly going to make the ACA more popular among seniors…