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Today's Must-Must-Read: Paul Krugman: The Missing Deflation and the Argument for a Higher Inflation Target - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
The failure of inflation to fall as much as predicted in 2009 was part of a series of events that were trying to tell us that the initial inflation target was too low.
Afternoon Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Nerds, High Priests, and the State of Economics - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
These past six years… a big win for basic Hicksian macroeconomics…. Consider the people Simon Wren-Lewis calls the ‘high priests’, people who are supposedly ‘close to the markets’ and whose vast experience and intuition grant them insights denied to nerdy economists…. They’ve spent these past six years declaring that we’re going to turn into Greece any day now (and it’s ‘regrettable’ that it hasn’t happened yet), that we can boost the economy by cutting deficits, because confidence. Great calls, guys. Remarkably, as Simon points out, politicians still hang on the words of these high priests…”
The Debate Over the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Focus - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
However, the big reason that Paul is not in support of the TPP that may be comes at the end: “Why, exactly, should the Obama administration spend any political capital–alienating labor, disillusioning progressive activists–over such a deal?” The argument here is that in the long run America will be better off if there is a more unified liberal base more enthusiastically behind the Democratic Party, and that that outweighs whatever the small and uncertain net benefits of TPP might be.
I would agree that it would have been good from the perspective of Obama’s political and policy goals for him to have framed the TPP debate differently. It should be the business of McConnell and Boehner to pass the enabling legislation through the House and the Senate. It should be a requirement from Obama that they also come up with sufficient additional legislative sweeteners to make it worth his while to sign it–given labor and anti-globalizer opposition. The question should be not: “Can Obama round up the votes for ratification?”
The question, rather, should be: “can Boehner and McConnell come up with sufficient legislative sweeteners for labor and progressives to elicit a signature?” That kind of forward-looking legislative-procedural chess, however–attaching all kinds of sweeteners to the enabling legislation and threatening a veto if they do not stick–has never been the Obama administration’s long suit.
Morning Must-Read: Paul Krugman: TPP at the NABE - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
But do we really think that inadequate incentive to create new drugs or new movies is a major problem right now? You might try to argue that there is a US interest in enhancing IP protection even if it’s not good for the world, because in many cases it’s US corporations with the property rights. But are they really US firms in any meaningful sense? If pharma gets to charge more for drugs in developing countries, do the benefits flow back to US workers? Probably not so much…. Why, exactly, should the Obama administration spend any political capital–alienating labor, disillusioning progressive activists–over such a deal?
Nighttime Must-Read: Paul Krugman: The Strange Urge to Raise Rates - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
“Monetary policy attracts crazy people like moths to a flame: goldbugs, 100-percent-reserve-banking types, amateur historians who think they know exactly what happened when Diocletian ruled Rome…
…The obsession with raising interest rates among economists who used to seem sensible…. Up to a point, Feldstein has followed the now-usual arc…. We’re talking about conservatives with vast faith in the wisdom of markets, who somehow are completely sure that markets will make terrible decisions due to low interest rates, and require paternalistic monetary policy to keep them on the strait and narrow. What really strikes me about Marty’s latest… is the muttering that there must be some sinister hidden agenda…. that central banks are operating under… a desire to help finance budget deficits. It’s very, very strange, and distressing.
Morning Must-Read: Paul Krugman: The Regrettable Man - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
The continued willingness of right-wing economists to declare their allegiance to the inflation cult continues to amaze:
Paul Krugman: The Regrettable Man: “CNN: ‘Lonegan also said Friday…
…that in conjunction with the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming this year, a group of conservative economists are planning to hold a meeting of their own ‘directly across the street’ featuring former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan as the keynote speaker.
Morning Must-Read: Paul Krugman: The Closed-Minds Problem - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
the point is not to convince Rick Santelli or Allan Meltzer that they are wrong…. It is, instead, to deter other parties from false equivalence. Inflation cultists can’t be moved; but reporters and editors who tend to put out views-differ-on-shape-of-planet stories because they think it’s safe can be, sometimes, deterred if you show that they are lending credence to charlatans…. The inflation-cult story is, I think, a prime example…. It really would be nice not having to do things this way. But that’s the world we live in…
Nighttime Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Quantitative Easing and Monetary Aggregates - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
“I get especially annoyed when economists who have been wrongly predicting inflation…
…say that it’s not their fault–who could have known that banks would just sit on all those reserves? The answer is, anyone who had paid attention…
Afternoon Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Phantom Phiscal Crises - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Paul Krugman: Phantom Phiscal Crises: “Matthew Klein takes on…
…the mysterious, persistent fear that Japan and other countries that borrow in their own currencies could suddenly face a Greek-style fiscal crisis…. It’s not just BowlesSimpsonGreenspan who believe in the threat; Taka Ito… is a good and sensible economist; so is Olivier Blanchard…
Lunchtime Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Triumph of the Chart - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Paul Krugman: Triumph of the Chart: “The Vox interview with President Obama…
…reactions… not just from the right, but from centrists are remarkable. Jack Shafer compares it to a Scientology recruitment film; Rich Lowry compares it to Leni Riefenstahl…. What seems to offend the critics is the very idea of covering a politician’s policies…. Back in 2004… you could watch all the network and major cable coverage for two months, and learn literally nothing about, say, the candidates’ health care plans…. That’s the kind of thing the people at Vox are trying to fix–and the response is to accuse them of acting like cultists if not Nazis.
Evening Must-Read: Claudia Sahm: Is Resistance Futile? - Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Claudia Sahm: Is Resistance Futile?: “Krugman…. ‘So if Larry [Summers] were at the Fed…
would he be saying what he is, or would he have been assimilated by the FedBorg?…
This got me wondering: In the past 7+ years have I, as a staff economist, been ‘assimilated by the FedBorg?’… What are some Fed-specific signs that I have changed as an economist?: Fedspeak: My economic writing tends to be more factual and less forceful now…. The staff view: As an economist, I uttered the words: ‘we think xyz’ much, much less before joining the Fed…. The Fed: More than once I have thought how wonderful it would be if monetary policy in the real world were like in Woodford’s textbook…. I am constantly amazed at the array of inputs to and outputs from the policy work at the Fed. And I am pretty sure that most academic economists could learn something from reflecting more on this…. So it seems to me the good part of assimilating is learning new things, the bad part of assimilating is forgetting what you knew…
