henry copeland: Want to see the future? Connect stipulations with "however" rather than "moreover." pllqt.it/dr9iiP
Why Is It So Hard to Predict the Future? - The AtlanticTwo days later, a team member with experience in finance saw that the hryvnia was strengthening amid events he’d thought would surely weaken it. He informed his teammates that this was exactly the opposite of what he’d expected, and that they should take it as a sign of something wrong in his understanding. (Tetlock told me that, when making an argument, foxes often use the word however, while hedgehogs favor moreover.) The team members finally homed in on “between 10 and 13” as the heavy favorite, and they were correct.